Physical Sciences Laboratory Review 2020

Banner containing photos of Atlantic cod, dry/cracked earth, a reservoir, and sea ice

November 16 and 18-20, 2020


Laboratory science reviews are conducted every five years to evaluate the quality, relevance, and performance of research conducted in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) laboratories. This review is for both internal OAR/NOAA use for planning, programming, and budgeting, and external interests. It helps the Laboratory in its strategic planning of its future science. These reviews are also intended to ensure that OAR laboratory research is linked to the NOAA Strategic Plan, is relevant to NOAA Research mission and priorities, is of high quality as judged by preeminence criteria, and is carried out with a high level of performance.

This review will be held virtually and covers Physical Sciences Laboratory research activities since 2015. [ Register ]

For questions or assistance, please contact: psl.review@noaa.gov.



Themes

Predicting Extremes Icon

Thematic Area 1: Predicting Extremes

 

Given the impacts of serious risk to health, economic development, and food security, improved prediction of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme weather and climate is a high priority to help NOAA meet mission responsibilities to provide early warning and informed preparedness. Subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting bridges the gap between the more-mature weather forecast and seasonal prediction. S2S remains a challenging forecast time range with lead times too long for significant influence of atmospheric initial conditions, but too short for the variability of the ocean to have a strong influence, yet the S2S time range is critical for proactive disaster mitigation efforts. PSL researchers have applied expertise in characterizing and advancing prediction of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme weather and climate to improve NOAA’s ability to forecast, provide early warning and inform preparedness. Research has focused on advancing observationally-based physical process understanding, using field observations of air-sea-ice-land interactions to characterize surface fluxes, boundary-layer clouds, and energy balance to inform parameterization development and improve representation of stochastic and subgrid scale processes, enhancing ensemble-based data assimilation methods, applying statistical post-processing using reforecasts, developing and applying linear inverse and other models to diagnose and predict changes in extremes, exploring the influence of land surface conditions on predictability and development of reliable forecasts, and conducting attribution and predictability assessments of high-impact weather, water and climate extreme events.

Water Resource Management Icon

Thematic Area 2: Water Resource Management

 

The stress of too little and too much water can be destabilizing at local, regional and national scales. Accurate water monitoring and predictions are critical for a variety of societal needs including agriculture, water supply, energy, water security, and public safety. Stakeholders need information ranging from current conditions to hours to seasons and beyond. NOAA Water Initiative and development of the National Water Model (NWM) provided an opportunity to improve water prediction at unprecedented time and space scales. PSL research has addressed significant challenges in characterizing uncertainty in hydrologic forcings, the coupling between atmosphere-terrestrial-coastal systems, and tailoring information products to inform risk management. PSL researchers have applied expertise in understanding, predicting, and assessing severity of water-related extreme events such as droughts and floods (including linkages between them), and coastal inundation. Research has focused on using observations to improve physical process understanding and guide model development for improved predictions, analyzing atmosphere, cryosphere, land surface, and air-sea interface processes, identifying the sources of forecast errors in the coupled meteorological and hydrological forecast system, and developing land and coupled land-atmosphere data assimilation capabilities, and applying targeted observations, observation-based understanding, and modeling capabilities to develop experimental guidance for hydrologic extremes critical to manage water resources.

Marine Resource Management Icon

Thematic Area 3: Marine Resource Management

 

U.S. coastal regions, including the U.S. territories in the Pacific and Caribbean, host a rich diversity of marine resources spanning the warm tropical waters to Arctic sea ice covered waters. Marine resources and ecosystems are critical to commerce, human health and coastal tourism. As pressures on marine resources continue to rise, there is a concomitant need for improved monitoring and prediction of weather, climate, and water conditions impacting the marine environment. PSL researchers have applied expertise in using targeted observations to advance process understanding and prediction of environmental conditions impacting marine resources. Research has focused on developing and evaluating sub-seasonal and seasonal forecast systems for the Arctic, coastal environments and ocean-bound rivers, developing end-to-end forecast systems that span ocean dynamics, ecosystem responses, and management decision making, developing empirical forecast methods to predict and forecast environmental conditions impacting marine resources, delineating the effects of climate variability and change on environmental conditions impacting marine resources, investigating and explaining ocean extremes, such as ocean heat waves and rapid changes in sea ice, and developing experimental products and services in support of marine resource management decision making by NMFS, NOS and external government agencies.

Focus Areas

  • Observing Capabilities

  • Field Campaigns

  • Modeling and Forecasting

  • Research Partnerships

  • R2X Transitions

Agenda

Except for the Welcome and OAR/Portfolio Session on the first day, all other presentations have been recorded and are intended to be watched in advance. Sessions during the Review primarily focus on interactive questions/answers and discussions.

Monday, November 16
(10:30AM to 3PM MST // 12:30 to 5PM EST)
Time Session
10:30 Review Panel Discussion (15 minutes, Closed Session)
10:45 Welcome and Introductions (20 minutes)
PSL Director: Robert Webb
11:05 NOAA/OAR and Portfolio Presentations and Discussion (40 minutes)
Gary Matlock: Overview of NOAA Research and Context for the Review
Wayne Higgins (with John Cortinas): OAR Portfolios
11:45 Interactive Questions & Answers on the PSL Overview (55 minutes)
PSL Director: Robert Webb
12:40 Break (10 minutes)
12:50 Interactive Panel Discussion on Thematic Area 1. Predicting Extremes (60 minutes)
Subject Matter Experts: Gil Compo, Martin Hoerling, Matt Newman, Judith Perlwitz, Tom Hamill
1:50 Discussion with Predicting Extremes Stakeholders (30 minutes, Closed Session)
2:20 Break (10 minutes)
2:30 Review Panel Discussion (30 minutes, Closed Session)
3:00 End of Day 1
Wednesday, November 18
(10AM to 3PM MST // 12 to 5PM EST)
Time Session
10:00 Review Panel Discussion (15 minutes, Closed Session)
10:15 Interactive Panel Discussion on Thematic Area 2. Water Resource Management (60 minutes)
Subject Matter Experts: Rob Cifelli, Clara Draper, Mimi Hughes, Ben Moore, Prashant Sardeshmukh, Michael Scheuerer
11:15 Discussion with Water Resource Stakeholders (30 minutes, Closed Session)
11:45 Break (10 minutes)
11:55 Interactive Panel Discussion on Thematic Area 3. Marine Resource Management (60 minutes)
Subject Matter Experts: Antonietta Capotondi, Michael Alexander, Chris Cox, Michael Jacox, Sang-Ik Shin
12:55 Discussion with Marine Resource Stakeholders (30 minutes, Closed Session)
1:25 Break (10 minutes)
1:35 Discussion with CIRES and CIRA Directors (40 minutes, Closed Session)
2:15 Review Panel Discussion (45 minutes, Closed Session)
3:00 End of Day 2
Thursday, November 19
(10AM to 3PM MST // 12 to 5PM EST)
Time Session
10:00 Review Panel Discussion (15 minutes, Closed Session)
10:15 Interactive Panel Discussion on Observing Capabilities (50 minutes)
Subject Matter Experts: Taneil Uttal, Gijs de Boer, Chris Fairall, Paul Johnston, Alex Voronovich, Allen White
11:05 Interactive Panel Discussion on Field Campaigns (50 minutes)
Subject Matter Experts: Janet Intrieri, Leslie Hartten, Matt Shupe, Elizabeth Thompson, Jim Wilczak
11:55 Break (10 minutes)
12:05 Interactive Panel Discussion on Modeling and Forecasting (50 minutes)
Subject Matter Experts: Amy Solomon, Lisa Bengtsson, Juliana Dias, Cécile Penland, Aaron Wang, Jeff Whitaker
12:55 Interactive Panel Discussion Research Partnerships (50 minutes)
Subject Matter Experts: Kelly Mahoney, Jian-Wen Bao, Andrew Hoell, George Kiladis, Roger Pulwarty, Gary Wick
1:45 Break (10 minutes)
1:55 Interactive Panel Discussion on R2X Transitions (50 minutes)
Subject Matter Experts: Andrea Ray, Laura Bianco, Mike Hobbins, Jamie Scott, Laura Slivinski, Matt Switanek
2:45 Review Panel Discussion (15 minutes, Closed Session)
3:00 End of Day 3
Friday, November 20 — All Closed Sessions
(10AM to 3PM MST // 12 to 5PM EST)
Time Session
10:00 Interactive Panel Discussion with Line Office Representatives (75 minutes, Closed Session)
Attendees from: NWS, NMFS, NESDIS, NOS, OMAO
11:15 Break (10 minutes)
11:25 Interactive Panel Discussion with Newer Staff (60 minutes, Closed Session)
PSL Attendees: Janice Bytheway, Chris Cox, Clara Draper, Juliana Dias, Zac Lawrence, Ben Moore, Sara Morris, Jackson Osborn, Laura Slivinski, Matt Switanek, Elizabeth Thompson, Brandon Wolding
12:25 Break (10 minutes)
12:35 Review Panel Discussion (60 minutes, Closed Session)
1:35 Review Panel Report Out Session with OAR and PSL Leadership (60 minutes, Closed Session)
2:35 Close Out Review Panel Discussion (25 minutes, Closed Session)
3:00 End of Review

Presentations and Introductions

Access recorded presentations and staff introductions. To watch presentations on YouTube: Click the 'Play' button on the video, and then click the 'YouTube' logo at the bottom of the video.


For Monday, November 16

PSL Overview
Presenter Intro: Robert Webb
PDF
Thematic Area 1: Predicting Extremes
Presenter Intro: Gil Compo
PDF
Subject Matter Expert Intros: Tom Hamill, Martin Hoerling, Matt Newman, Judith Perlwitz

For Wednesday, November 18

Thematic Area 2: Water Resource Management
Presenter Intro: Rob Cifelli
PDF
Subject Matter Expert Intros: Clara Draper, Mimi Hughes, Ben Moore, Prashant Sardeshmukh, Michael Scheuerer
Thematic Area 3: Marine Resource Management
Presenter Intro: Antonietta Capotondi
PDF
Subject Matter Expert Intros: Michael Alexander, Chris Cox, Michael Jacox, Sang-Ik Shin

For Thursday, November 19

Observing Capabilities
Presenter Intro: Taneil Uttal
PDF
Subject Matter Expert Intros: Chris Fairall, Gijs de Boer, Paul Johnston, Alex Voronovich, Allen White
Field Campaigns
Presenter Intro: Janet Intrieri
PDF
Subject Matter Expert Intros: Leslie Hartten, Matt Shupe, Elizabeth Thompson, Jim Wilczak
Modeling and Forecasting
Presenter Intro: Amy Solomon
PDF
Subject Matter Expert Intros: Lisa Bengtsson, Juliana Dias, Cécile Penland, Aaron Wang, Jeff Whitaker
Research Partnerships
Presenter Intro: Kelly Mahoney
PDF
Subject Matter Expert Intros: Jian-Wen Bao, Andrew Hoell, George Kiladis, Roger Pulwarty, Gary Wick
R2X Transitions
Presenter Intro: Andrea Ray
PDF
Subject Matter Expert Intros: Laura Bianco, Mike Hobbins, Jamie Scott, Laura Slivinski, Matt Switanek