PSL Experimental Climate/Weather Forecasts

PSL generates experimental forecasts on time-scales of weeks to seasons as part of its research mission. The forecasts and associated information such as verifications are available on the following webpages. It is planned that these forecasts will eventually be transitioned to operational mode.
DescriptionSample Product
Annually-averaged global surface temperature for the upcoming decade
A empirical dynamical technique, linear inverse modeling (LIM), is used to calculate global averages of surface temperature over the next decade.
decadal LIM Forecast
Arctic sea-ice experimental forecast
Experimental, sea ice forecasts produced from a fully coupled ~9km ice(CICE5)-ocean(POP2)-land(CLM4.5)-atmosphere(WRF3.5) model called RASM-ESRL. The model is initialized with the NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses, CRYOSAT2 sea ice thickness, and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sea ice concentrations. The model is forced at the lateral boundaries by 3-hourly GFS forecasts of winds, temperature, and water vapor.
5day sea ice snow
Linear Inverse Modeling Medium Range (2-6 weeks) Forecasts
A empirical dynamical technique, coupled linear inverse modeling (C-LIM), is used to calculate empirical medium-range forecasts of tropical convection, wind, and SST pentads.
LIM Forecast
Global Tropical SST forecasts
A empirical dynamical technique, linear inverse modeling (LIM), is used to calculate forecasts regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean SSTs ("ENSO"), the tropical Atlantic Ocean SSTs, and the tropical Indian Ocean and the North Atlantic. LIM SST Forecasts are for 3 months to 12 months from the current date. Forecasts are presented as maps of global tropical SST forecasts and timeseries plots that include forecast history and verification.