Lesley L. Smith – Re. Wildland Fire Potential

All plots preliminary.        

Re. Fire Weather and Vapor Pressure Deficit Prediction    

VPD Prediction Preliminary ML Results: As of ~April 23, 2025

Week3 2007_VPD     Week3 2015_VPD     Week4 2007_VPD     Week4 2015_VPD    

Diffs Week3 2007_VPD     Diffs Week3 2015_VPD     Diffs Week4 2007_VPD     Diffs Week4 2015_VPD    

Results from ~April 9, 2025 here

For Reference:

2007_ERA5_VPD     2015_ERA5_VPD     2007_Reforecast_VPD     2015_Reforecast_VPD    

ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5) Data

ERA5 sample 2010 (first 1000 timesteps) VPD movie here

Largest Historical ConUS Fires (MTBS) and VPD (ERA5) for ignition days here

ERA5 VPD Seasonal Climatology 2000-2019:

ERA5 VPD Sample Seasonal Anomalies 2000:

ERA5 VPD Seasonal Anomalies all years here.

Some statistics on mean weekly ERA5 VPD:

GEFSv12 ReForecast Data

Downloaded GEFSv12 ReForecast Data includes Precipitation, Geopotential_Height at 200mb, 850mb, and surface, Precipitable_Water, Soil Moisture, Specific Humidity at 200mb, 850mb, Temperature at 200mb, 850mb, and 2-meters, Zonal & Meridional Winds at 200mb, 850mb, Upward Longwave Radiation Flux, Snow Depth Water Equivalent.
Calculated ReForecast GEFSv12 Data includes Wind Speed at 200mb, 850mb, dew point temperature (via relative humidity), vapor pressure deficit
Note each ReForecast has one initiatiation Date with 00Z initiation time; each ReForecast has 11 ensemble members; each ReForecast has 140 6-hour-forecast increments.
Below are links to plots of weekly min, max, and mean for weeks 1,2,3,4 (where statistics performed over forecast_hours) for ensemble means and standard_deviations for various dates.

20000105     20000112    20000119    20000126    20000202    20000209    20000216   
More dates available upon request.

GEFSv12 Forecast Data

GEFSv12 Forecast sample 20250202 VPD movie here

Downloaded Realtime GEFSv12 Forecast Data includes Precipitation, Dewpoint_Temperature, Geopotential_Height at 200mb, 850mb, and surface, Precipitable_Water, Soil Moisture, Specific Humidity at 200mb, 850mb, Temperature at 200mb, 850mb, and 2-meters, Zonal & Meridional Winds at 200mb, 850mb, Upward Longwave Radiation Flux, Snow Depth Water Equivalent.
Calculated Realtime GEFSv12 Data includes Wind Speed at 200mb, 850mb, and Vapor Pressure Deficit.
Note each Forecast has one initiatiation Date with 00Z initiation time; each Forecast has 31 ensemble members; each Forecast has 140 6-hour-forecast increments.
Below are links to plots of weekly min, max, and mean for weeks 1,2,3,4 (where statistics performed over forecast_hours) for ensemble means and standard_deviations for various dates. Lag-0 cross-correlations with VPD are also performed (over all forecast_hours).

20250101     20250108    20250115    20250122    20250129    20250205    20250212    20250219    20250226    20250305    20250312    20250319    20250326    20250402    20250409    20250416    20250423   
New plots added in realtime as data becomes available.