Experimental Precipitation Forecasts

Extended Winter Season Precipitation Forecasts for CONUS

This page provides forecasts of precipitation for the extended winter season of November-March. These forecasts, and the associated historical skills, are shown using two different statistical models. The first model uses only sea surface temperatures as predictors, while the second is a weighted ensemble of four different statistical models. Learn More

We include: Historical Skill, the reforecast skill across CONUS for our statistical models versus the skill of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts; Forecasted Probabilities, the median forecasts for each year shown spatially; Time Series, the time series of the median forecasts, at each CONUS basin, for the last 30 years along with the forecast for this winter.

This is an experimental forecast product, and is not an official forecast of NOAA or its National Weather Service.

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We welcome feedback on this product. Email comments to: webmaster.psl@noaa.gov.


This is a Research and Development Application