On Trends in Magnitudes of U.S. Extreme Daily Precipitation
Lesley Smith
NOAA/ESRL PSD
Tuesday, Feb 18, 2020, 2:00 pm
DSRC Room 1D403
Abstract
Several analyses have projected increases in the magnitudes of extreme U.S. precipitation events in a future warming climate. To better understand this phenomenon, we examine changes in extreme 1-day annual precipitation (RX1day), utilizing observational data and ensembles of AMIP climate simulations (CAM5, ECHAM5, MRIv3.2). We investigate if observed changes are reconcilable with thermodynamic effects of climate change alone, indicative of dynamical effects of climate change, and/or mostly due to sampling of internal variability effects.
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