Lesley L. Smith – Extreme California Precip

All plots preliminary.

Physical phenomena related to subseasonal and seasonal Western US precipitation
200hPa Geopotential Height

ECMWF Reanalysis 5 (ERA5) Data

Re. 1991-2020 Climatologies

Conditioning on ENSO
1950+ DJF ENSO Phases from CPC's Oceanic Nino Index (https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php)
prior to 1950 from Webber Weather (https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html)
and where index > 0.5 is El Nino, index < -0.5 is La Nina.

El Nino Anomalies Oct-Apr 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

where Jan-Apr data conditioned with current year DJF ENSO index, while Oct-Dec data conditioned with following year DJF ENSO index

La Nina Anomalies Oct-Apr 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

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Conditioning on OMI MJO
Daily OLR_only MJO Index (OMI) phases computed via mjoindices code (https://github.com/cghoffmann/mjoindices)
using ERA5 OLR data from M.Gehne

OMI Phase_1 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

where only OMI phases corresponding to OMI amplitudes > 1 are utilized

OMI Phase_2 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

OMI Phase_3 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

OMI Phase_4 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

OMI Phase_5 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

OMI Phase_6 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

OMI Phase_7 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

OMI Phase_8 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

Conditioning on RMM MJO
Daily Real-time Multivariate MJO Index (RMM) phases from the NOAA PSL AOPP group (https://www.psl.noaa.gov/mjo/)
and the Bureau of Meteorology Australia.

RMM Phase_1 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

where only OMI phases corresponding to RMM amplitudes > 1 are utilized

RMM Phase_2 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

RMM Phase_3 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

RMM Phase_4 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

RMM Phase_5 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

RMM Phase_6 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

RMM Phase_7 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

RMM Phase_8 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

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Conditioning on OMI MJO & ENSO
Daily OLR_only MJO Index (OMI) phases computed via mjoindices code (https://github.com/cghoffmann/mjoindices)
using ERA5 OLR data from M.Gehne

El_Nino OMI_Phase_1 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

El_Nino OMI_Phase_2 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

El_Nino OMI_Phase_3 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

El_Nino OMI_Phase_4 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

El_Nino OMI_Phase_5 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

El_Nino OMI_Phase_6 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

El_Nino OMI_Phase_7 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

El_Nino OMI_Phase_8 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

La_Nina OMI_Phase_1 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

La_Nina OMI_Phase_2 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

La_Nina OMI_Phase_3 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

La_Nina OMI_Phase_4 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

La_Nina OMI_Phase_5 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

La_Nina OMI_Phase_6 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

La_Nina OMI_Phase_7 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

La_Nina OMI_Phase_8 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023

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Conditioning on OMI MJO & QBO
Daily OLR_only MJO Index (OMI) phases computed via mjoindices code (https://github.com/cghoffmann/mjoindices)
using ERA5 OLR data from M.Gehne
where QBO is equatorial zonal mean u50mb and ENSO neutral

Negative_QBO OMI_Phase_1 Anomalies 1940-1978 & 1979-2023