Lesley L. Smith – Drought

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Drought Risk in the U.S. Great Plains

Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (Lens) data from NCAR

CESM LENS (red) and NCEI-5km (black), upper and lower limits are upper and lower deciles OR minimum and maximum
anomaly reference period: 1920-2000

above ncei line smoothed by 20-year running mean

above ncei line smoothed by 10-year running mean

CESM LENS (blue) and NCEI-5km (black)

CESM LENS (brown)

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Number of dry days for three different Junes, Sample Runs

National Centers for Environment Information (NCEI) data

Station Data

Regarding the number of dry days:
For 'dry' ~ 0.1 inches precip:

For 'dry' ~ 0 inches precip:

NLDAS Forcing data

NLDAS Data

Noah Data sample files

Mosaic Data sample files

VIC Data sample files

Forcing Data sample files

NLDAS Soil Moisture data

Sample plots

Mosaic: comparing monthly and daily maps

top 10 cm

top 1 m

Noah: comparing monthly and daily maps

top 10 cm

top 1 m

VIC: comparing monthly and daily maps

top 10 cm

top 1 m

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21st Century Projections of Evaporative Demand

5 models: GFDL-ESM2M, CNRM-CM5, CanESM2, IPSL-CM5A-MR, HadGEM2-ES

full resolution and down-scaled Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA)

MACA only plots:

Running 2 week accumulations

Exceedance Probabilities:

Ratios 2036-2065 era and 1976-2005 era for exceedance probabilities

Focusing on the Great Plains:

Great Plains Differences between 2036-2065 era and 1976-2005 era in exceedance probabilities, where .1% is the most unlikely (largest ETr) and 99.9% is the most likely (smallest ETr), expressed as a percentage, i.e. 100.*(era2-era1)/era1

header refers to the exceedance probability