Rochelle is a Research Physical Scientist in NOAA's Physical Sciences Lab. Her research focuses on the understanding and probabilistic prediction of fire-weather variables and wildfire indicators at subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales for both wildfire and prescribed fire applications. These variables range from temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, as well as fire indicators such as the Hot-Dry-Windy Index and components from the National Fire Danger Rating System. She leverages large hindcast and reanalyses datasets in combination with conventional and novel statistical post-processing techniques such as deep learning methods to improve the skill and reliability of forecasts output from dynamical weather models. The goal of these improved probabilistic forecasts is to help forecasters and fire practitioners make more informed decisions.

Rochelle has led the development of two near real-time experimental forecast tools:

(1) Climate Prediction Center's Fire-weather Week 2 (8-14 Day) Forecasts: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/fireWeather/cpc_wk2fw_index.html

(2) Physical Sciences Laboratory's Experimental Subseasonal Precipitation Accumulation Outlooks
https://psl.noaa.gov/forecasts/s2s_NNprecip/

and collaborated with a team that developed additional fire-relevant tools:

(3) Experimental Seasonal Vapor Pressure Deficit Guidance
https://psl.noaa.gov/forecasts/seasonal_vpd/

(4) Conditions Related to Large Wildland Fires in the United States
https://psl.noaa.gov/fire_weather/historical/


Rochelle came to NOAA as PSL's first federal Pathways intern in the last year of her graduate studies at the University of Colorado-Boulder. She joined NOAA as a CIRES Research Scientist in the summer of 2018 in the Attribution and Predictability Assessments Team and joined NOAA's federal workforce in 2023 within the Hydrology Applications Division. She was a recipient of a five-year fellowship through the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program and she was awarded the CIRES Outstanding Performance Award in Science in 2021 "for the scientific development, demonstration, and technology transfer of a one-to-two-week forecast of fire weather potential–an agency first."

Ph.D., Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado-Boulder
M.S., Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado-Boulder
B.S., Meteorology, Florida State University